Balancing Development And Emissions: The Climate Burden On Emerging Economies

Emerging economies face the dual challenge of reducing greenhouse gas emissions while continuing to develop economically. South Africa, heavily reliant on coal, has committed to ambitious emission reduction targets and seeks to balance decarbonization with social equity. However, substantial international financial support is required to achieve these goals.

by Kamrie Holms

Emerging Economies and Climate Change

Emerging economies play a critical role in global climate change mitigation and adaptation due to their rapid industrialization and growing energy demands [1]. These countries, often characterized by significant economic growth, face the dual challenge of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while continuing to develop economically. 

Their role in climate change is pivotal both nationally – as they implement policies to curb emissions – and internationally – as they contribute to global efforts through agreements like the Paris Agreement [2]. 

These countries are projected to surpass developed nations in annual  emissions within the first half of this century, underscoring their critical importance in addressing climate risks [2]. 

While historically reluctant to accept binding emissions targets, many emerging economies are now taking significant steps to reduce their emissions growth, often driven by economic, security, or local environmental concerns rather than climate mitigation itself [2]. These efforts have already resulted in substantial emissions reductions, with six key countries – Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey – reducing their emissions growth by approximately 300 million tons annually over the past three decades [2].

However, emerging economies require substantial financial support to transition to low-carbon pathways, with recent assessments suggesting they need to increase climate spending to around $2.4 trillion per year by 2030, of which $1 trillion would need to come from external sources [3]. 

The Case of South Africa 

South Africa exemplifies the challenges faced by emerging economies in addressing climate change and development. The country has, this year, made significant strides in addressing climate issues through national policies and international commitments.

Because the country is the fifth-largest coal-producing country in the world, its energy matrix is heavily reliant on coal, which accounted for 86% of its energy production in 2020. This reliance makes South Africa a significant emitter of GHGs, with emissions reaching 469  megatonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2eq) in 2020 [4]. This makes South Africa one of the largest contributors to GHG emissions on the African continent  [5, 6]. However, the country aims to reduce its emissions to 398-510 MtCO2eq by 2025 and further to 350-420 MtCO2eq by 2030 [4].

South Africa, is also at significant risk of climate change disaster.  The country’s infrastructure is at risk from extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change. The country’s population of approximately 60.8 million is vulnerable to climate impacts such as droughts and floods, which threaten food security and water availability [4]. Finally, South Africa’s rich biodiversity is under threat from changing climatic conditions, which could lead to habitat loss and species extinction.

Historical Positions in Climate Negotiations

South Africa’s Path Forward: Ambitious Laws or A Little Too Late? 

To achieve its ambitious targets, South Africa has enacted its first climate change law that aims to reduce emissions, transition to a low carbon economy, and develop national adaptation plans [5, 6]. This law makes its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) legally binding and requires setting sectoral emission targets [5]. 

The law aligns with international commitments and sets specific targets for GHG emission reductions. It underscores South Africa’s commitment to climate change mitigation and highlights the importance of international support and cooperation in achieving climate goals – especially from developed economies [7]. 

Furthermore, South Africa has created the Just Energy Transition Plan, aiming to decarbonize the electricity system while ensuring social equity by supporting workers affected by the transition away from coal. Finally, the government has introduced tax incentives to boost private investments in renewable energy projects such as wind and solar power [4]. 

Current Direction

South Africa’s current direction emphasizes a balanced approach that seeks to harmonize economic growth with environmental sustainability. The country is committed to reducing its carbon emissions through increased use of renewables while addressing socio-economic challenges associated with this transition [5]. This strategy exemplifies the complex interplay between economic development and environmental stewardship faced by emerging economies.

South Africa’s ongoing efforts in policy reform and international cooperation underscore its pivotal role in global climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. These initiatives raise fundamental questions about the nature of development in the context of climate change, arguably the most pressing global challenge of our time. They prompt a critical reconsideration of how we define and measure progress, particularly in emerging economies.

The challenge lies in conceptualizing development in a way that not only accommodates but actively promotes rapid decarbonization while ensuring a high quality of life for all citizens – essentially, achieving a good life for all within planetary boundaries. This necessitates a paradigm shift in our approach to economic growth and societal advancement, one that integrates environmental sustainability as a core principle rather than an afterthought [8, 9]. 

This evolving perspective challenges policymakers and researchers to develop new metrics and frameworks that capture a more holistic view of progress. These should encompass not only traditional economic indicators but also measures of environmental stewardship, social equity, and long-term resilience in the face of climate change. By doing so, South Africa and other emerging economies can chart a course toward sustainable development that balances immediate socio-economic needs with long-term environmental imperatives [8, 9]. 

References:
[1] “Achieving decent living standards in emerging economies challenges national mitigation goals for CO2 emissions | Nature Communications.” Accessed: Nov. 25, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42079-8
[2] “Climate Change Mitigation in Developing Countries: Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey,” Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. Accessed: Nov. 25, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.c2es.org/document/climate-change-mitigation-in-developing-countries-brazil-china-india-mexico-south-africa-and-turkey/
[3] “Developing countries are key to climate action.” Accessed: Nov. 25, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/developing-countries-are-key-to-climate-action/
[4] “South Africa Energy Information | Enerdata.” Accessed: Nov. 25, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.enerdata.net/estore/energy-market/south-africa/
[5] “South Africa – Countries & Regions,” IEA. Accessed: Aug. 21, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.iea.org/countries/south-africa
[6] “South Africa passes its first sweeping climate change law | Reuters.” Accessed: Aug. 21, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africa-passes-its-first-sweeping-climate-change-law-2024-07-23/
[7] “Achieving decent living standards in emerging economies challenges national mitigation goals for CO2 emissions | Nature Communications.” Accessed: Aug. 20, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42079-8
[8] “About Green Economy | Department of Environmental Affairs.” Accessed: Nov. 25, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.dffe.gov.za/about-green-economy
[9] “Environmental sustainability in South Africa: Understanding the criticality of economic policy uncertainty, fiscal decentralization, and green innovation – Udeagha – 2023 – Sustainable Development – Wiley Online Library.” Accessed: Nov. 25, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/sd.2473