Introduction
This year is the first year for the UNFCCC’s new Global Climate Action Agenda, launched at COP30 and intended to span 2026 to 2030. The Agenda is a large package of commitments across six thematic areas, including “transitioning energy, industry and transport” [1, 2]. This article will explain the significance of this thematic area, barriers to reaching this goal, and place it within the wider global context.
The significance of electrification
Electrification refers to any transition or conversion of devices, systems, or sectors onto the grid, thereby increasing electricity’s share of final energy demand [3]. Although the original Agenda does not identify electrification in its objectives beyond “tripling renewables,” “doubling energy efficiency,” and “transitioning away from fossil fuels” [1, 2], the COP31 Türkiye Presidency has updated the Agenda to set the world a new goal: a global electrification rate of 35% by 2035 [4].
By targeting demand share rather than the creation and installation of renewable energy sources, the Presidency hopes to achieve an increase in renewable energy that displaces fossil fuel use, rather than just growing alongside it. It’s important to note that increasing our supply of wind, solar, or hydro power – while overall useful – does not constitute electrification unless that energy is used where formerly we would have used fossil fuels as the sole energy source.
Expansion of renewables worldwide will enable the ambitious electrification goals put forward this year – for instance, by reducing the carbon intensity of electricity. This makes any electrification can cut emissions more effectively. Electrification is not the only decarbonisation strategy in our toolkit. By improving global energy efficiency, consumption can be cut, reducing the burden on our existing energy supply. Electricity as an energy source also provides the means to create sustainable fuels, which can be used to decarbonize sectors, such as aviation, where electrification poses significant logistical challenges [5].
Where negotiations will begin: the global context
The starting point of negotiations in Antalya is a positive one for electrification. The first Global Stocktake, concluded at COP28, led to parties committing to triple renewable capacity; now that parties have agreed on the importance of supply, the Presidency is shifting to demand. The European Commission’s latest package of energy commitments — the “Electrification Action Plan” — includes upping the EU’s electricity demand to 46% of all energy use, compared to its current market share of 23% [6]. To get this done, von der Leyen’s cabinet are planning modernisation of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), channeling more funding to lower-income member states to upgrade their energy systems, and committing 100 billion euros to industrial decarbonisation [7].
Although President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen has stated her desire for the EU to become the first “electro-continent”, China currently leads the world in electrification rates, due to sustained investment in expanding the national grid and the electric vehicle market since 2001 [8]. In the country’s 2035 NDC, China set its first absolute emissions reduction target for net greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a new target for non-fossil energy consumption making up 30% of the national total [9]. It is estimated that Chinese use of electric vehicles already displaces over one million barrels of oil a day [10].
The goals set by the COP31 Presidency-Designate are ambitious, but the journey to 35% by 2035 will be fraught with challenges, from petrostates and corporate emitters alike. Oil and gas companies continue to influence climate policy; at COP30 this past November in Belém, it was estimated that one in every 25 attendees was a lobbyist representing fossil fuel industry interests, while the three previous COPs were all hosted by petrostates, who are likely to oppose any official commitments to electrification [11]. Lobbyists use that access to shape the conversations around energy; they can influence the information given to Parties before and during negotiations, through expert inputs and technical briefs, discouraging or downplaying the importance of hardline electrification policy commitments [12].
Practical barriers to electrification
Electrification also poses practical challenges in the short term. Although electric technologies can be more efficient overall, electricity is still more expensive than oil and gas per unit of energy. One of the European Commission’s commitments is to make electricity more affordable, but their strongest commitment on that front is to “Make sure electricity prices stay less than 2.5 times gas prices for households” [13]. These price differences are thanks to a combination of factors including energy taxes, network charges, and costly infrastructure maintenance; enforcing electrification will make any government unpopular if households can feel the difference, which could deter states from implementing new electrification policies.
Large-scale electrification will require investment, time, and technology. In domestic and industrial contexts, old buildings will need retrofitting, and existing energy infrastructure will need rebuilding [14]. Many sections of the global workforce will need to be re- or up-skilled to facilitate such infrastructure projects while ensuring this transition does not trigger a global recession. All of this means that electrification will be politically, as well as fiscally, costly. These practical challenges further underscore the importance of global cooperation and strong policy frameworks. From technological transfer to knowledge-sharing, major international coordination will be needed to meet the goals set by the COP31 Presidency and the longer-term Action Agenda objectives.
Conclusion
As COP negotiations increasingly shift from lofty goals to the trickier questions of implementation, the tangible goal of 35% by 2035 is a positive sign. To meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, there must be a global transition away from oil and gas and towards renewable energy. COP31’s ability to deliver on this electrification goal will be shaped by how willing parties are to transition away from fossil fuels, and invest in long-term infrastructure adaptation. The negotiations in Antalya this November will be a valuable indicator as to how well states will be able to work with each other, and with non-state actors, to help the world go electric.
