Trash is a climate problem: linking waste and climate change
For the first time in history, zero-waste and circularity have been placed amongst the central themes of the COP Presidency’s Action. Instead of being treated in parallel, Türkiye — who holds the unique dual-Presidency alongside Australia — is acknowledging the intrinsic link between climate change and waste production.
Global municipal solid waste — everyday items that an individual or commercial entity would discard, excluding industrial waste — is projected to rise from 2.1 billion tonnes in 2023 to 3.8 billion tonnes by 2050 based on current trajectories [1]. It also contributes directly to greenhouse gas emissions: when food and other organic waste decompose anaerobically in landfills without oxygen, it produces methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Estimates show that waste accounts for 20% of global methane emissions, and methane is responsible for around 30% of current global warming [2]. This link to global temperature rises puts waste reduction on the climate action agenda.
The climate impacts of waste begin far before a product reaches a landfill. Our current economic model is largely linear: resources are extracted, turned into products, and eventually discarded. This is resource- and energy-intensive, placing pressure on the natural environment. A circular economy can break this cycle, keeping products and materials in use for as long as possible [1].
What is the starting point in Antalya?
Although zero waste has not previously been a central theme of a COP Presidency, COP31 isn’t starting from scratch. Methane reduction and circular economy policies have already gained momentum internationally and regionally, providing a foundation for discussions in Antalya.
At an international level, the Global Methane Pledge, launched at COP26, brings participating countries together around a voluntary commitment to reduce global anthropogenic methane emissions by at least 30% from 2020 levels by 2030 [3]. Circular economy policy has been developing similarly outside of the COP process. The European Union’s Circular Economy Action Plan, for example, sets out measures to reduce resource consumption and waste across a product lifecycle [4]. At an international level, the World Circular Economy Forum, initiated by Finland, has become a leading event for governments, business, and other stakeholders to share circular economy solutions [5].
For Türkiye, the discussion of waste reduction is one that is deeply personal to First Lady H.E. Emine Erdoğan, who helped launch Türkiye’s Zero Waste Movement in 2017 and founded the Zero Waste Foundation. To prepare for discussions at COP31, Istanbul hosted its second Zero Waste Forum in June 2026, bringing together thousands of participants from around the world to discuss circular economy, resource efficiency and methane reduction.
What is on the COP31 table?
At COP31, Türkiye aims to scale circular economy solutions that can help curb global waste production and reduce methane emissions. In the third Presidency Letter, the COP31 Presidency proposed halving the increase in global annual waste generation by 2035 [6]. It’s important to note that the target isn’t to halve global waste generation by 2035; it is to halve the projected increase in annual waste generation under a business-as-usual trajectory. This puts an emphasis on preventing waste at its source, rather than simply managing a growing volume of waste more efficiently.
The Presidency has also proposed increasing the global circular material use rate by at least 15% by 2035 [7]. Together, these targets point towards three areas of action identified by the Presidency:
1. Preventing Food Waste: COP31 focuses on practical, measurable solutions to reduce food waste from production to consumption, by bringing together governments and the private sector to prevent food waste at its source. This could include improving transportation and storage, improving food distribution, and consumer awareness.
2. Circular Economy Policies: COP31 supports scaling circular economy policies that treat waste as a resource, using regulatory and financial tools to expand reuse, recycling, and circular-by-design practices. This could mean implementing policies such as the EU’s Circular Economy Action Plan on national and regional levels.
3. Methane in NDC Updates: COP31 encourages countries to integrate waste-sector methane reductions into updated NDCs through measurable targets and implementation roadmaps. This could connect the waste agenda to existing climate policy mechanisms and build on the Global Methane Pledge.
Adding another commitment into NDCs does not automatically cause emissions reductions. Many countries struggle to achieve the emissions reductions targets set out in their NDCs. For waste reduction targets to be effective, countries would need the finances, technical systems, and infrastructure to implement them. The key question is not if waste reduction commitments appear in more NDCs, but if there are implementable solutions that can back them.
Can COP31 be a zero-waste conference?
If zero waste is going to be a flagship COP31 priority, can the conference itself demonstrate what it is advocating for? COPs cause enormous temporary flows of people, materials, and infrastructure [8]. The Zero Waste Foundation has released a COP31 Zero Waste Summit Guide, outlining how COP31 will aim to minimize waste, zeroing in on minimizing single-use products (i.e. plastic water bottles), which are a major source of waste generation at large-scale events like COPs [8]. Whether or not the event truly is zero-waste is a question that will be answered in November.
