The increasing impacts and frequency of climate change over the past few decades have led to various forms of adaptation by communities globally. One particularly contentious form is Human Mobility due to Climate Change (HMCC), encompassing migration, displacement, and planned relocation [1]. While HMCC is widely acknowledged as a consequence of climate change, a growing body of literature identifies certain elements within HMCC as effective adaptation strategies, such as migration and planned relocation [2].
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its Fifth Assessment Report, recognized HMCC in the context of human security and highlighted migration as an “effective adaptation strategy to avoid both extreme weather events and longer-term climate variability [3].” The concept of HMCC was formally introduced in the Cancun Adaptation Framework during the 16th Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and later categorized under Loss and Damage, exemplified by the formation of The Taskforce on Displacement which is managed by the Warsaw Implementation Mechanism [4].
The establishment of the UAE-Belem Work Programme on Indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) during COP28 offers a unique opportunity for the UNFCCC to recognize elements of HMCC as forms of adaptation and to encourage countries to adopt policies and realign financing to address HMCC [5].
Importance of GGA for HMCC
Despite increasing recognition by researchers and policymakers, the mapping, tracking, and estimation of people moving due to climate change remains a significant challenge, hindering the development of appropriate, context-specific policies to address HMCC [6]. Additionally, existing research and reporting often use alarmist tones that fail to fully represent the nuances of the issue [7]. Including HMCC in the GGA through the UAE-Belem Work Programme on Indicators will recognize HMCC as a complex issue and thus provide a platform for consultations among multiple stakeholders to develop measurable and quantifiable indicators. In turn, this will further promote policy development to address HMCC-related issues.
HMCC manifests in multiple forms, necessitating an inclusive approach to fully understand how climate change impacts mobility [1]. Several sectors under the GGA, such as agriculture, water, infrastructure, health, poverty, and livelihoods, significantly affect HMCC. For instance, poor agricultural yields due to drought might compel a household to migrate, while many migrants face health issues due to poor water quality and lack of sanitation facilities.
Inclusion of HMCC in the GGA will encourage countries to recognize HMCC as a form of adaptation and realign adaptation finance to fund interventions addressing HMCC. Currently, the UNFCCC proposes addressing HMCC under the Loss and Damage Fund [8]. However, treating HMCC solely as a Loss and Damage component prevents stakeholders from recognizing HMCC as an effective adaptation strategy.
Integrating HMCC into the GGA
- HMCC, influenced by several sectors currently mentioned under the GGA, should not become an explicit sector under the targets but should be included under the iterative adaptation cycle focusing on adaptation planning and implementation. The interdisciplinary nature of HMCC needs recognition by the GGA, and countries must be encouraged to consider HMCC when developing strategies for sector-specific adaptation plans.
- Progress by the Taskforce on Displacement needs to be highlighted during GGA workshops to assist in developing indicators. Although displacement is not considered an adaptation strategy, the Taskforce has conducted extensive studies on measuring HMCC and incorporating it into national policies, legal frameworks, and international processes.
- A study found that over 85% of countries included at least one form of HMCC in their National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), with more than 65% providing concrete provisions or commitments to address mobility [8]. The UNFCCC must acknowledge the inclusion of HMCC as an adaptation strategy by multiple countries and invite representatives from these countries to stakeholder consultations hosted by the UAE-Belem Work Programme to explore integrating HMCC into the GGA.
- HMCC should also be included under adaptation finance while estimating adaptation needs and costs by organizations such as the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). This will encourage countries to include financial reforms in addressing adaptation across different sectors.
Conclusion
Many countries do not recognize HMCC despite internal displacement and migration being the most common forms of HMCC globally. Including HMCC in the GGA will encourage countries to recognize and address the issue through NAPs and other adaptation-related reforms.
Recent submissions for the first UAE-Belem Work Programme workshop in May indicated several proposed indicators related to HMCC within the iterative adaptation cycle [9]. However, the source and methodology for measuring these indicators remain unclear. This underscores the growing attention HMCC is receiving from researchers and policymakers, with its inclusion in the GGA being a crucial first step in addressing the issue.
The UNFCCC must use the UAE-Belem Work Programme on Indicators to acknowledge HMCC’s interdisciplinary nature and its potential as an effective adaptation strategy to address the growing risks of climate change.
