From Dialogue to Decision: The Fight Over a Blue COP31
Sunlight makes the ocean shimmer like glass. Beneath it, fish move through coral gardens, seagrass swings with the current and mangroves hold their roots in the mud. It looks peaceful. But the ocean carries a weight it never asked for. It absorbs around one-quarter of human-produced carbon dioxide, takes in excess heat, regulates climate, feeds millions and protects shorelines [3]. But there is only so much silence can hold. Marine heatwaves threaten corals, sponges and macroalgae. The ocean needs protection, finance and action. That is where COP31 in Antalya comes in [1].
The ocean has a dialogue, but not a decision
The UN climate process does have a place to discuss the ocean: the Ocean and Climate Change Dialogue. Mandated at COP26, it brings countries, scientists, Indigenous Peoples and coastal voices together in Bonn. In June 2026, Sivendra Michael of Fiji and Ulrik Lenaerts of Belgium co-facilitated it with three themes: ocean priorities in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), means of implementation, and ocean-climate-biodiversity synergies and international cooperation [2].
Think of the Dialogue as a boat where everyone can speak. But collecting ideas alone cannot make it move.
A dialogue is informal. It does not produce a negotiated COP decision. It cannot require countries to put ocean targets into their NDCs, guarantee money for a coastal village or create obligations for governments. A negotiated outcome, however, is where countries agree on wording and formally carry it forward in the UN climate process.
The fight for a Blue COP31
For years, ocean issues have stayed close to the edge of UN climate negotiations, but this could be changing. The African Group of Negotiators proposes a structured, multi-year roadmap aligned with the next Global Stocktake with the EU supporting this proposal. Pacific islands and some Latin American countries support bringing Dialogue outcomes into negotiations without explicitly endorsing the roadmap [1].
Türkiye and Australia are working with interested countries on a voluntary Blue COP31 roadmap: a concise action plan with regional and international steps. This is distinct from securing negotiated COP decisions. The roadmap could strengthen ocean observation and data-sharing [1]. This is about knowing what is happening beneath the waves: when waters are heating up, when coral bleaching is likely, when sea levels are rising and when coastal people need a warning.
The COP31 Türkiye Presidency has already made oceans and seas a priority theme. Its Action Agenda highlights blue carbon, marine ecosystem protection, coastal resilience, ocean observation and data partnerships [3]. Additionally, the Oceans and Seas Summit, which took place in Trabzon, Türkiye from 10-11 September 2026, called for implementable COP31 outcomes and greater resource mobilisation, moving preparations beyond the planned ministerial meeting described in August reporting [4]. The Dialogue’s co-facilitators will present its outcomes at COP31’s opening plenary and convene a special event. The report also calls for alignment between NDCs, National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs), alongside cooperation with the High Seas Treaty while respecting distinct mandates [5].
Islands cannot wait for another summary
For small islands, the ocean is home, food, livelihood, culture and safety. AOSIS (Alliance of Small Island States) represents 39 small island and low-lying coastal developing states, pressing for emissions cuts, finance and action on loss and damage [6].
Sivendra Michael of Fiji said: “For SIDS, where the ocean is central to our economies, livelihoods and resilience, the scale of climate vulnerability makes access to means of implementation particularly urgent. Ocean ambition must therefore be matched by predictable and accessible finance, technology and capacity to turn national priorities into action” [5]. At the Pacific Islands Forum in Palau, leaders called for COP31 finance, ocean action and renewable energy support [7].
In the 2025 NDC synthesis sample, 48% of Parties reported ocean finance needs; of these, 46% made conditional commitments [8]. Ocean-related official development assistance historically represented 0.8–1.4% of total ODA commitments [9].
A mangrove cannot wait for a complicated funding form. A coastal family cannot wait when the tide reaches their doorstep.
From conversation to current
COP31 can connect negotiated decisions, a multi-year Dialogue roadmap, NDC implementation and finance. The ocean does not work in separate files. Antalya must respond with action strong enough to travel from the negotiating room to the shore.
