What To Expect From Mexico’s First Female President Regarding Climate Action

Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist and former mayor of Mexico City, has been elected as Mexico’s first female president, bringing scientific expertise to the role but facing challenges due to her ties with outgoing President López Obrador. Sheinbaum’s campaign promises include a $14 billion investment in clean energy, focus on sustainable transportation, and long-term planning for energy and water sectors, but her platform also supports some fossil fuel projects.

by Kamrie Holms

Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist and former mayor of Mexico City, has been elected as Mexico’s first female president. Her victory marks a potential turning point for climate action in Mexico, given her scientific background and environmental credentials. Equally however, her close ties to outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and commitment to his development plans raise questions about the extent of her climate ambitions [1].

Sheinbaum’s Climate Credentials

Claudia Steinbaum won in Mexico’s presidential election on June 2, 2024, as a candidate of the ruling and popular MORENA party – she will take office for a six-year term on October 1, 2024 [1].  As an energy engineer and physicist, Sheinbaum has an impressive scientific background in climate and environmental issues. She holds a doctorate in energy engineering and has published extensively on the energy transition and greenhouse gas emissions. Notably, she contributed to two major reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including the 2007 report that earned the IPCC a Nobel Peace Prize [1][2]. As mayor of Mexico City from 2018 to 2023, she took actions to reduce carbon dioxide emissions such as implementing solar power projects and greening public transportation [1].

Campaign Promises and Manifesto

Sheinbaum’s campaign platform and MORENA’s manifesto outline a series of ambitious climate-related commitments. At the forefront of these pledges is a commitment to  invest nearly $14 billion in clean energy initiatives so as to  diversify Mexico’s energy mix and reduce the country’s reliance on fossil fuels [3]. This commitment is accompanied by  a focus on sustainable transportation, with plans to boost electric buses and trains, thereby addressing one of the country’s significant sources of greenhouse gas emissions [1] [3]. 

Furthermore, Sheinbaum has emphasized the need for long-term planning in both the energy and water sectors [3]. She has promised to work on a national energy plan that extends to 2050, potentially providing a comprehensive framework for Mexico’s energy transition [2].

Challenges and Contradictions

Sheinbaum faces several challenges in implementing these climate policies. Mexico’s economy remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels, being the world’s 14th largest economy and a significant oil producer [4]. AMLO’s administration has been criticized for opposing private investment in the electricity sector and supporting state-led fossil fuel production, a legacy that Sheinbaum may find difficult to break [4]. Moreover, Sheinbaum’s energy roadmap does not mention net-zero emissions targets, meaning Mexico remains one of only two G20 countries without such a target [3][4]. Further, her platform supports the continued extraction and use of fossil fuels by backing the recently constructed Dos Bocas oil refinery, supporting natural gas pipelines and petrochemical plants, and championing domestic oil production [1][3][4].

Key Decisions and Outlook

As Sheinbaum takes office, several key decisions will indicate the direction of her climate policy. One crucial aspect will be the extent to which she allows private investment in renewable energy projects. This is significant given her commitment to state-owned energy companies [4].

Sheinbaum will also need to consider  whether she will implement a more ambitious emissions reduction target for 2030 and beyond [3]. Mexico’s current target aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 35% below a business-as-usual baseline by 2030, rising to 40% with international financial support. However, experts argue that this target is not ambitious enough to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement [4]. 

Lastly, Sheinbaum will need to tackle pressing climate-related challenges facing Mexico, such as water scarcity and extreme weather events. Mexico is highly vulnerable to the climate crisis, as evidenced by recent droughts, floods, and hurricanes [6]. Sheinbaum’s  approach to adaptation and resilience measures will be crucial in preparing Mexico for the increasing impacts of the climate crisis  [4].

The election of Claudia Sheinbaum, as Mexico’s first female president presents a unique opportunity for more ambitious  climate policy, but also highlights the complex challenges ahead. While her scientific background and campaign promises indicate  stronger climate action, her political alliances and ongoing support for some fossil fuel projects create a contradictory landscape. Sheinbaum’s presidency will be defined by her ability to balance economic interests, political commitments, and environmental imperatives. Key decisions on renewable energy investment, emissions reduction targets, and addressing climate-related challenges will indicate the direction of her administration. The international community will be watching to see if Mexico can leverage this moment to become a climate leader among developing nations, or if political and economic realities will constrain progress. Ultimately, Sheinbaum’s term will test whether scientific expertise can effectively translate into transformative political action in a country heavily reliant on fossil fuels. If executed well, it could potentially become  a model for climate-conscious governance in the face of entrenched interests and economic challenges [4][6].

References:
[1] D. Harrison, “Mexico Elected a Climate Scientist. But Will She Be a Climate President?,” Inside Climate News. Accessed: Jun. 30, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/07062024/mexico-president-elect-claudia-sheinbaum-climate-policy/
[2] “Climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum to become Mexico’s first woman president,” Carbon Brief. Accessed: Jun. 30, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/climate-scientist-claudia-sheinbaum-to-become-mexicos-first-woman-president/
[3] T. Graham, “Mexico’s new president ran on climate goals. Will she follow through?,” The Guardian, Jun. 10, 2024. Accessed: Jun. 30, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/10/claudia-sheinbaum-mexico-climate
[4] D. Clague, “Mexico elects Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist, as president,” Climate Home News. Accessed: Jun. 30, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.climatechangenews.com/2024/06/03/mexico-elects-a-climate-scientist-as-president-but-will-politics-temper-her-green-ambition/
[5] Y. Quiroz, “Mexico election 2024: What the manifestos say on energy and climate change,” Carbon Brief. Accessed: Jun. 30, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.carbonbrief.org/mexico-election-2024-what-the-manifestos-say-on-energy-and-climate-change/
[6] “President-Elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s Eco-Vision To Shape Mexico’s Future.” Accessed: Jun. 30, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.forbes.com/sites/monicasanders/2024/06/07/claudia-sheinbaum-pioneering-presidents-eco-vision-to-shape-mexicos-future/